On January 28, 1999, the American Geophysical Union released a position
statement on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases (Attachment 1.)  AGU
requests that the AIP Governing Board consider whether to issue a
statement in support of their position.

In 1994, the AIP Governing Board approved a procedure for issuing a
statement in support of a Member Society position (Attachment 2.)   AGU
has requested that AIP implement this process.  The next step is to be
taken by each of the Member Societies:


*AIP will request each other Member Society to have its governance
consider the issue and inform AIP in a timely manner (at least one month
before the next AIP Governing Board meeting) 
	(i)  of its position with respect to the circulated policy and 
	(ii) whether it recommends any AIP action.*

THE AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION 
 Position Statement
Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases have substantially increased as a consequence of fossil fuel
combustion and other human activities.  These elevated concentrations
of greenhouse gases are predicted to persist in the atmosphere for
times ranging to thousands of years.  Increasing concentrations of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases affect the Earth-atmosphere
energy balance, enhancing the natural greenhouse effect and thereby
exerting a warming influence at the Earth's surface.

Although greenhouse gas concentrations and their climatic influences
are projected to increase, the detailed response of the system is
uncertain.  Principal sources of this uncertainty are the climate
system's inherent complexity and natural variability. The increase in
global mean surface temperatures over the past 150 years appears to be
unusual in the context of the last few centuries, but it is not
clearly outside the range of climate variability of the last few
thousand years. The geologic record of the more distant past provides
evidence of larger climate variations associated with changes in
atmospheric carbon dioxide.  These changes appear to be consistent
with present understanding of the radiative properties of carbon
dioxide and of the influence of climate on the carbon cycle.  There is
no known geologic precedent for the transfer of carbon from the
Earth's crust to atmospheric carbon dioxide, in quantities comparable
to the burning of fossil fuels, without simultaneous changes in other
parts of the carbon cycle and climate system.   This close coupling
between atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate suggests that a change
in one would in all likelihood be accompanied by a change in the
other.

Present understanding of the Earth climate system provides a
compelling basis for legitimate public concern over future global- and
regional-scale changes resulting from increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases.  These changes are predicted to include increases in
global mean surface temperatures, increases in global mean rates of
precipitation and evaporation, rising sea levels, and changes in the
biosphere. Understanding of the fundamental processes responsible for
global climate change has greatly improved over the past decade, and
predictive capabilities are advancing.  However, there are significant
scientific uncertainties, for example, in predictions of local effects
of climate change, occurrence of extreme weather events, effects of
aerosols, changes in clouds, shifts in the intensity and distribution
of precipitation, and changes in oceanic circulation.  In view of the
complexity of the Earth climate system, uncertainty in its description
and in the prediction of changes will never be completely eliminated.
Because of these uncertainties, there is much public debate over the
extent to which increased concentrations of greenhouse gases have
caused or will cause climate change, and over potential actions to
limit and/or respond to climate change.  It is important that public
debate take into account the extent of scientific knowledge and the
uncertainties.  Science cannot be the sole source of guidance on how
society should respond to climate issues.  Nonetheless, scientific
understanding based on peer-reviewed research must be central to
informed decision-making.  AGU calls for an enhancement of research to
improve the quantification of anthropogenic influences on climate.  To
this end, international programs of research are essential. AGU
encourages scientists worldwide to participate in such programs and in
scientific assessments and policy discussions.

The world may already be committed to some degree of human-caused
climate change, and further buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations
may be expected to cause further change.   Some of these changes may
be beneficial and others damaging for different parts of the world.
However, the rapidity and uneven geographic distribution of these
changes could be very disruptive.  AGU recommends the development and
evaluation of strategies such as emissions reduction, carbon
sequestration, and adaptation to the impacts of climate change.  AGU
believes that the present level of scientific uncertainty does not
justify inaction in the mitigation of human-induced climate change
and/or the adaptation to it.
     ****************************************************
     ASLA 99-03: AGU Releases Position Statement at Jammed Press
     Conference
     ****************************************************

Executive Director Fred Spilhaus and three members of AGU highlighted
key points of the newly-released AGU position statement entitled
"Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases" and then answered questions for
nearly an hour at the National Press Club in Washington, DC on
Thursday January 28.  Reporters from the Associated Press, Reuters,
United Press International, the Washington Times, Time Magazine,
Business Week,  and the Newark Star-Ledger were in the standing-room
only crowd.  They joined colleagues in the business, trade, science,
and international press representing Barron's, The Chronicle of Higher
Education, Physics Today, Electricity Daily, Dow Jones, as well as
several scientific and engineering societies.   Senior Scientist
Tamara Ledley of the Center for Earth and Space Science at TERC in
Cambridge, MA, Research geologist Eric Sundquist of the USGS in Woods
Hole, MA, and Tim Killeen, Professor of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and
Space Science at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor limited their
remarks to what is covered in the position statement, adopted by the
AGU Council by unanimous vote in December.

The three scientists were members of an AGU panel, chaired by Ledley,
and also including Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Laboratory,
Dorothy Hall of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and Jack
Fellows of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, that
was charged by AGU President John Knauss with drafting the position
statement.  The need for a statement was first suggested in 1997 by
AGU's Committee on Global and Environmental Change, and this need was
endorsed by the Committee on Public Affairs.  AGU put an early draft
of the statement on its website in March 1998 and invited members to
comment.  After carefully considering the comments from members the
Panel drafted a statement for consideration by the AGU Council.
Following a few minor word changes the Council approved the statement
by unanimous vote at its meeting on December 9, 1998.  The statement
is published in the February 2 issue of Eos and is available on the
AGU website http://www.agu.org/ .

In their opening remarks, and in response to a barrage of questions,
the scientists noted that the bulk of evidence in the peer-reviewed
literature indicates that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
from human activities are exerting "a warming influence" on the
Earth's surface, that changes in carbon dioxide and changes in climat
in the geologic past are tightly coupled, and that the present level
of scientific uncertainty does not justify inaction on the part of
policy makers.  The statement also calls for the development and
evaluation of strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change,
including emissions reduction, carbon sequestration, and adaptation.
Following the press conference, panelists granted telephone interviews
to the New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, National Public Radio,
Voice of America, World Radio, and a call-in program on Wisconsin
Public Radio.

Reaction to the statement has varied widely, although the mainstream
press picked up on most of the main points and reported the issue
accurately.  One global warming contrarian called the statement
"inaccurate and misleading," while others considered the statement old
news and were disappointed that AGU did not go further and recommend
specific actions to curtail greenhouse gas emissions.  The scientists
agreed that the statement was cautious, but each stressed repeatedly
that AGU leaned heavily on peer-reviewed research, and was careful to
distinguish between accepted scientific facts and speculation.  On
Capitol Hill, if both ends of the political spectrum attack a bill,
then the legislation probably has some merit.  If that analogy holds
here, then the AGU statement represents a meaningful contribution to
the climate change policy debate.

Vice President Gore immediately issued a release citing the position
statement as a lead-in to announcing an Administration proposal to
boost spending on climate change research by $105 million.  The Vice
President's statement omitted mentioning the Kyoto agreement, perhaps
signaling a more cautious approach to the Administration's global
climate strategy.  The Kyoto agreement faces near unanimous opposition
in the Senate.  The full text of Vice President Gore's release is
available on the AIP website at:

      

Sources: AGU, AIP